May 9, 2011
ABC Radio Australia
The role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is being challenged by the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia.
The leaders of the two countries met on the sidelines of the weekend's ASEAN meeting in Jakarta but were not able to come to any agreement. The two Foreign Ministers are staying back for more talks today.
The Philippines' President Benigno Aquino told reporters the unity and credibility of ASEAN as a regional body were at stake. But that's not the only issue faced by ASEAN. There's also controversy over Burma's bid to host the summit in 2014 and moves by Singapore to block East Timor from becoming the 11th member of ASEAN.
Presenter: Liam Cochrane
Speaker: Michael Vatikiotis, former editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review, and now the Asian regional representative for the The Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
VATIKIOTIS: Well, it appears that the Indonesian president and his Foreign Minister, Marty Natalegawa, as in the chair of ASEAN this year made strenuous efforts before and during and after the summit to bring the two sides together, Cambodia and Thailand, in fact there was even a tripartite meeting called by the president where the prime ministers of Thailand and Cambodia sat uncomfortably, awkwardly in the presence of the Indonesian president to see if they could come up with some sort of way of sorting out a deal.
Now this didn't work. I mean frankly Prime Minister, Hun Sen admitted that the diplomacy had failed, that is the presence of this conflict in the midst of a summit rather spoiled ASEAN's spirit of community and togetherness. Having said that the foreign ministers did agree to stay on and there is a deal on the table which was brokered last February by the Indonesian foreign minister which would bring observers from Indonesia to the disputed area along the border to ensure that security is maintained.
COCHRANE: Now, a lot is riding now upon sorting this out within ASEAN and Benigno Aquino said the unity of ASEAN is at stake. How big a challenge do you think this is to the credibility of the regional bloc?
VATIKIOTIS: Well, it matters a great deal, because the outside world is watching this dispute and saying well, if ASEAN can't resolve a conflict within itself, then it really is a very weak regional organisation. As you know, the Cambodians asked for this dispute to be taken to the United Nations Security Council earlier in the year, but the United Nations Security Council I think in a landmark agreement or decision basically said look, this is up to ASEAN to resolve and tossed it back into the regional organisation.
Now I think what this has done, one, it hasn't bore any fruit as yet and while we haven't seen an agreement stick, and while we've seen continued fighting along the border, what has happened at the same time is that the ASEAN chair, Indonesia, and ASEAN as a regional organisation has I think become a bit more empowered to handle regional, internal, regional security issues. And I think what we're going to see play out in the longer term, is a greater willingness for the ASEAN chair for the ASEAN grouping to try and sort out its own internal conflicts. What this dispute clearly shows though is that there are internal conflict that affect ASEAN and they need addressing.
COCHRANE: Now as you were just mentioning, ASEAN has for many years operated under a policy of non-interference where each of the ten members basically stay out of the other countries affairs. Do you think this dispute has really shifted the rules for that policy?
VATIKIOTIS: Well, it's shifted the ground if not the rules. I think what's happened is that there's a realisation that it's no longer possible to say that there are no territorial or other forms of dispute within ASEAN and that therefore ASEAN doesn't need some sort of mechanism for dealing with internal conflict. And I think what we've seen, it wasn't much publicised, on the sidelines of this summit was a declaration tabled by the Indonesian chair for the establishment of an ASEAN Peace and Reconciliation Centre, which is taking really the first step towards a recognition that ASEAN must deal with its own internal security issues.
COCHRANE: Well, let's move now to a separate issue, but also within the umbrella of the ASEAN grouping. There was a draft statement about Burma's desire to host the summit in 2014. They are at the moment scheduled to host the rotating chairmanship in 2016. They're looking to bring that forward. What can we tell from the diplomatic language used within this ASEAN statement on the weekend?
VATIKIOTIS: Well, I think perhaps they've just been erring on the side of caution. The new government led by President Thein Sein in Myanmar needs a bit more time I think to demonstrate to member states and to the international community that some of the reforms and the gradual opening of the country that have gotten underway since the election in November are for real and I think actually it was perhaps a bit too early for ASEAN to comfortably agree both for internal and external reasons to Myanmar chairing ASEAN. But I think this is ultimately what will happen later in the year and I think that essentially the pause that the ASEAN leaders have given this proposal is essentially perhaps to further encourage the government of Myanmar not to take for granted that the impact of the elections since November on the gradual opening and reform of the country is there. So I think actually they've probably done the wise thing, but I would expect later in the year for Myanmar to be granted this wish.
COCHRANE: Well, the other big issue on the agenda is East Timor's bid for inclusion in ASEAN. It wants to be the 11th member of the grouping and it's bid was supported by Indonesia, of course, the former occupier. Apparently, the analysis is that there is resistance to the idea and that specifically that resistance is coming from Singapore. Can you tell us why Singapore is against East Timor joining ASEAN?
VATIKIOTIS: Well, that's correct and I think that Indonesia has been hoping for consensus on East Timor, because for Indonesia it helps sort of heal some of the wounds between the two countries, East Timor and Indonesia and makes Indonesia look like a very good neighbour, despite the history. So I think Indonesia will have been disappointed.
Singapore's concern seems to be based on I think the legacy of allowing Myanmar into ASEAN which is look, we should think very carefully about letting others states join the group thing if there is going to be further instability down the road. I think that's probably a weak argument though, because looking at East Timor today the comparisons of level of stability, for instance, if you look at a country like Thailand and you look at the problems that have afflicted Thailand today and in political terms, you can't use the argument of instability. Having said that, I think it's probably very, very important for East Timor now to mount a bit more of a lobbying effort and I think they took it rather for granted that they're membership of ASEAN would be shepherded through Indonesia and I think there's a need for East Timor to demonstrate more outreach in this regard.
COCHRANE: With the gas reserves that Timor has control of, you could perhaps think that they'd be quite an asset to a region that's growing and that, of course, is hungry for natural resources?
VATIKIOTIS: I agree, but I also think that it's important to point out that East Timor has gone about settling its own internal issues, law and order and other issues I think reasonably well in the circumstances and admittedly there is a UN presence still and there are Australian and New Zealand forces on the ground. There are still concerns, there are still worries. As you say there's a lot of money in the bank. It's not about not being able to afford a budget. It's really about ensuring the strength of institutions and levels of education that will allow a country to grow in a stable manner and I think that my estimate is that they've actually done a pretty good job so far, at least compared to many other countries in the region.
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